Monday, April 20, 2015

THIS AKSHAYA TRITIYA SELL GOLD!!!

Shocked!
Don’t be......I am in my senses!!
Full Page Ads exhorting you to Buy Gold,
Huge beeline of people outside Gold Showrooms,
and here I am telling not only not to buy Gold but to SELL!
Let me make it easy for you to decide why you should be SELLING Gold this Akshaya Tritiya

 

But, before that, please keep in mind, that to sell Gold you should have:

1. Bought Gold purely for investment purposes
2. Your Gold exposure vis a vis your Asset Allocation is in double digits
3. You had bought Gold for Speculative purposes
4. You had bought Gold to PROTECT your capital

Those who followed my advise last year have saved 11% on their Capital.
Yes, Gold has fallen 11% since last year’s Akshaya Tritaya.
And, it is widely expected that going forward, due to US Fed inevitable hiking rates, Lower Inflation would take the shine off the Gold and thus Gold is expected to stay soft if not weaken further.
Let us see why you should be selling rather than buying Gold on today's Akshaya Tritiya at this juncture...
  1. Inevitable hike in interest rates by US Fed could lead to less interest in gold
  2. Bounce back in economies of Europe could lead to money shifting away from Gold
  3. Lower expected Inflation rates in India could reduce Gold demand
  4. Lower demand by the Other BIG importer, i.e, CHINA could impact Gold prices negatively
  5. Mandatory declaration of PAN NUMBER for purchases of Gold above Rs.1 lakh could make people hesitant to buy Gold in bigger quantities affecting volumes and hence prices.
  6. Possible removal or reduction of Gold import duty (presently 10%) could reduce Gold Prices going forward
  7. There is an Adhik ASHADA masa this year, meaning an extra month of ASHADA wherein NO weddings are conducted. 2 months of low or NIL demand from one of the BIGGEST markets for Gold
  8. Continuing weakness in Crude Oil could also negatively impact Gold Prices

As expected, the World Gold Council is bullish. It has predicting good demand and a bounce back in prices. WGC has to be bullish. It is its job.

ASSET ALLOCATION:
Yes, as a part of Asset Allocation, Gold has to be in one’s portfolio and if your Asset Allocation says you to have to ADD Gold to your portfolio, go ahead buy Gold, but NOT now, not today at least.
Add Gold through Gold ETFs or Gold Funds preferably in SIP format and not through Gold Jewellery.
Either way, our scriptures say “The only auspicious day to buy gold ornaments stated to be of Guru-Pushya day ie when Pushya nakshatra falls on any Thursday in any month. And certainly not on Akshaya Tritiya day”

Please remember; never treat Gold as an Investment. It has to a part of your Asset Allocation and it certainly deserves a place.


So, today on Akashaya Tritiya Day, if not sell, at least do not BUY Gold. 


Also visit http:/http://goodinsuranceadvisor.blogspot.in/

Image courtesy : Jagran

Monday, April 13, 2015

VRL LOGISTICS IPO - SHOULD YOU INVEST?








LOOKS PROMISING – INVEST AT CUT OFF

Hubli based  VRL Logistics is coming out with an initial public offer (IPO)  with a price band of Rs.195 to Rs.205  from 15th April to 17th April.
This IPO which is expected to raise about Rs.451 crores to Rs.468 crores will be used by the Company to acquire New Fleet, repay debts and rest on General Corporate Purposes.
The issue will also give an exit to PE player New Silk Route and also by Promoters.

Post IPO, promoters stake would be reduced to 70 per cent and 25 per cent would be held by public and the rest 5 per cent would be held by investors," said VRL Logistics Chairman and Managing Director Vijay Shankeshwar.
VRL Logistics Ltd owns nearly 3,546 out of its fleet of 4000 vehicles.
VRL is present in 970 locations pan India which is huge.
The Company’s primary revenue is from Goods Transportation contributing 75% to the total revenue.
For 9 month period ended 31st Dec 2014, the Company posted a Net Profit of Rs.71.69 crores on revenue of Rs.1279 crores.
Now, let us look at the Positives and Negatives and see whether we should invest or not...........
.


VRL Logists is one of the Leading Players in Indian Freight Transportation sector. It has a huge network of 859 branches, 44 transhipment hubs and an envinable fleet of 2,573 tructs.
Crisil expects the Logists Parcel industry to grow at 11%.


POSITIVES :
1.      With the Indian economy on an upswing, companies like VRL Logistcs are in a sound position to take maximum benefit.
2.      Due to its in-build Bus Building plant, VRL Logistics buses has 10% to 15% EXTRA carrying capacity thus contributing to the bottomline with same outgo.
3.      The Company also directly buys Gasoline from Refineries and has its own Diesel Bunk in Huballi and Chitradurga. This has resulted in direct saving of Rs3 per litre!!
4.      Due to direct Bulk buying from Ceat and Mitchlen, the Company saves on Tyres too.............upto 10%
5.      Virtually NIL Bad debts

NEGATIVES :

Crisil has given a rating of 3/5 indicating AVERAGE.
VRL Logistics, in the past, has a liking for taking Debt to fund its expansion programmes which if repeated, could affect its bottom-line.

NUTSHELL :

With Crude prices on a decline and expected to stay weak for quite some time, the biggest expense for Company is taken care of and should help the Profit Margins of the company.
VRL Logistics could well be a GATI or a TCI in the making.

 With a good number of quality QIB investors showing faith in the IPO…….I would advice to invest at Cut-off  for the intial pop up gain.



 
Not exactly comparable, but GATI’s PE is 84 and TCI’s PE is 26........thus VRL Logistics at Rs.205 gives a PE ratio of 20 on a Dec EPS of 7.21.

WHAT DO OTHER ANALYSTS SAY :
First choice Analysis : INVEST
MyInvestmentIdesa : INVEST
Chittorgarh.com : Looks Promising ............INVEST

 KR Choksey says : Cheap Valuations and Strong Foothold, INVEST

Aditya Birla Money : SUBSCRIBE

Hem Securities : Issue Looks Attractive, SUBSCRIBE
ditya Birla Money has recommended investors to "Subscribe" on VRL Logistics IPO for short term and medium term investment

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-issues-open/subscribe-to-vrl-ipo-for-short-medium-term-ab-money_1356472.html?utm_source=ref_article
Considering cheap valuations and strong foothold in Southern India, we recommend "Subscribe", says KRChoksey research report.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-issues-open/subscribe-to-vrl-logistics-ipo-says-krchoksey_1356230.html?utm_source=ref_article
Considering cheap valuations and strong foothold in Southern India, we recommend "Subscribe", says KRChoksey research report.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-issues-open/subscribe-to-vrl-logistics-ipo-says-krchoksey_1356230.html?utm_source=ref_article
Considering cheap valuations and strong foothold in Southern India, we recommend "Subscribe", says KRChoksey research report.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-issues-open/subscribe-to-vrl-logistics-ipo-says-krchoksey_1356230.html?utm_source=ref_article
IndiaER.blogspot.in ......says
Grey market Premium: Rs 70

Kostak: Rs 1,000

Expected over subscription more than 6x in retail

Listing price Rs 275+
 


Best of luck,
Srikanth Matrubai

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Also visit http:/http://goodinsuranceadvisor.blogspot.in/

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

WHY CRITICAL INSURANCE IS IMPORTANT????






Take Insurance when you do not need it,

                       Because it can not be taken when you really need it.

Following Critical Illnesses are covered under Critical Illness Insurance:
1.     Cancer of Specified Severity
2.     Kidney Failure requiring Regular Dialysis
3.     Multiple Sclerosis with Persisting Symptoms
4.     End Stage Liver Disease of Specified Severity
5.     First Heart Attack of Specified Severity
6.     COMA of Specified Severity
7.     Major Burns
8.     Goodpasture’s Syndrome
9.     Apallic Syndrome
10.  Aplastic Anaemia
11.  Systemic Lupus Erythematosis
12.  Bacterial Meningitis
13.  Multiple System Atrophy
14.  Progressive Scleroderma
15.  Open Chest CABG
16.  Major Organ/Bone Marrow Transplant
17.  Aorta Graft Surgery
18.  Open Heart Replacement or Repair of Heart Valve
19.  Pneumonectomy
20.  Pulmonary Artery Graft Surgery
21.  Primary Parkinson’s Disease
22.  Alzheimer’s Disease
23.  Motor Neuron Disease with Permanent Symptoms
24.  Stroke resulting in Permanent Symptoms
25.  Permanent Paralysis of Limbs
26.  Primary Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension
27.  Benign Brain Tumour [resulting in permanent neurological symptoms]
28.  Cardiomyopathy
29.  End stage Lung Disease
30.  Brain Surgery
31.  Progressive Supranuclear Palsy
32.  Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD)
33.  Major Head Trauma
34.  Encephalitis
35.  Blindness
36.  Deafness
37.  Total Loss of Speech
Plz watch the video and take action accordingly...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOd7_c_mCbw/

 
Please take the advice of your Financial Planner.

Best of luck,

 Srikanth Matrubai

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