Monday, March 30, 2020

EMI HOLIDAY BY RBI – BEWARE - YOU COULD GET TRAPPED !

RBI’S MORATORIUM ON EMI COULD LEAD YOU INTO A TRAP
Greetings,
The CORONA Pandemic impact has forced RBI to step in to offer relief to borrowers who obviously are facing huge Liquidity crunch.
RBI has ALLOWED Banks and Financial Institutions to provide a moratorium of 3 months to all TERM LOAN Borrowers.
RBI has clarified that the Credit Score of the borrowers will not get impacted due to Moratorium.
Dont be under the false assumption that pausing your HOME LOAN EMI for 3 months will mean that your LOAN TENURE will also get extended by 3 months. 
As shown in the image, it can get extended by as much as 10 months!
A huge price for the comfort of 3 months. 


Lets get more details

  1. IS THIS A WAIVER OF LOAN?
No…This is not a waiver of Loan…its just a sort of EMI HOLIDAY.
Please understand, Moratorium means DEFERMENT. So, suppose your loan was supposed to end in June 2021, it will now end in September 2021 (3 months postponement).

  • Will my CREDIT CARD dues be deferred?
    Yes. That can be deferred. But, don’t forget the INTEREST!
    You will be charged interest for the 3 months and you do know the Interest that Credit card companies charge !!!!
  • My EMI gets deducted by ECS every month…. So in April will there be no deduction ?
    There could be!!!!
    Note….RBI has not “Instructed” but only “Allowed” the Banks to give this 3 month EMI Holiday. It’s up to the Bank to give or not..
    Hence you need to request the bank for the deferment
  • Is my HOME LOAN covered for deferment?
    Yes. All types of Term Loans are covered for deferment.
    Home Loan, Education Loan, Car Loan, even BUSINESS LOAN is covered.
    But, make sure to contact your Bank and request for deferment
  • My loan is not with any Bank but with a NBFC. Am I eligible?
    Yes. Indeed, you are. RBI has very clearly mentioned that it has ALLOWED all Banks and Financial Institutions to grant EMI Holiday based on their discretion.
So, NBFCs like Bajaj Finance, IndiaBulls Fiinance, etc are also eligible for this.
  • It looks like a huge benefit to me!
Not exactly. The interest is not waived off…. It will continue to get accumulated and you will have to pay the EMI Holiday 3 months interest too immediately after the 3 months of Moratorium !!


FINALLY,



Please understand that a moratorium only leads to POSTPONEMENT of your EMI payments and not Waiver as such. 
And the postponement will INCLUDE INTEREST FOR THE POSTPONED PERIOD. 
Hence, use it only under Exceptional Circumstances. 
If your financial position allows you the luxury of continuing with paying the EMI. Go ahead and do make the payment.
This will help you reduce your debt burden.  And also, in case you need, fresh loans will be easy based on your payment history.
And if you have credit card…. PLEASE PAY THE DUES….don’t extend it.
Credit card companies charge a compound annual interest rate of anywhere between 36% to 42%.
Moreover, credit card interest gets charged an additional 18% GST
I would rather say that this EMI HOLIDAY is a TRAP as it increase your INTEREST OUTGO and keep you in EMI JAIL for further 3 months.

Even for Home Loan...the EMI Holiday could become a trap in the sense, it increases your burden considerably. 
To illustrate....
Suppose 
Home Loan = 50 lakhs
Rate of Interest = 8.5%
3 months Moretorium period
Additional interest will be
50 lakhs *8.5%*3/12 = 1.06 lakhs
Your additional burden will be Rs.1,06,000/-
Avoid….unless you don’t have an alternative.
Regards,
Srikanth Matrubai



Srikanth Matrubai Author of the Amazon Best Seller DON’T RETIRE RICH
Do read my book DON’T RETIRE RICH . 
Kindle version https://amzn.to/2QRnjNY
Paper back version : https://amzn.to/3cHUM6M/ 
The book is available on Amazon, Kindle, Flipkart
Please subscribe to my TELEGRAM channel https://t.me/MutualFundWORLD/




Srikanth Matrubai Author of the Amazon Best Seller DON'T RETIRE RICH
Do read the book and give your valuable feedback and request you to post positive comments on the Amazon. https://amzn.to/3cHUM6M/ You can purchase the book on amazon and flipkart Please subscribe to my TELEGRAM channel https://t.me/MutualFundWORLD/

Saturday, March 28, 2020

CARONA SE DARO NA - 3 BACK TO THE BASICS





Greetings, 

Hope you are all safe in the confines of your home.
The CORONA virus is spreading across the Globe. What started as a “Chinese” problem has quickly capitulated into a “Global” problem.
Its something which hasn’t been seen by anyone alive till now. 

We have only HEARD but never seen. 



TRULY A BLACK SWAN EVENT !!






The unprecedented chaos, Worldwide Lock-down, has sent economies into a shock.
Its now LIFE first…”If we survive, we will think of money”.
It took less than 2 months for Humans to get into the mindset of MONEY IS NOT EVERYTHING. It can wait.
Even Olympics has been postponed (It was inevitable given the terrifying devastation that’s going around the World).
These events has proved yet again…..
1.    THERE IS NO STOCK MARKET GENIUS
2.    You cannot time the Market



So, is there anything at all which is like a light at the end of tunnel ?

Nothing, as of now…
However, what this shocking turn of events has however, proved that the Good Old SIP is still the best way to invest in the Stock Markets.
We all know, how it buys LESS units when markets are high and most importantly,  buy you MORE UNITS in falling markets (and huge number of units in these kind of falls) and helps us EARN
The humble SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLAN (SIP) is the true blue MARKET TIMER.
Its buy low and sells high.

Markets have fallen earlier but not at this velocity.
Its has been ferocious, sharp and terrifying to say the least.


Just stick to BASICS. 

1. Don’t try to be either overcautious or over adventurous.
Do not SELL at these prices and turn your paper loss into permanent loss
And at the same time, do not jump and start ramping equity by putting your entire 100% at one go.

2 Stick to Asset Allocation. Don’t go overboard on debt or equity or any asset class for that matter.

3.   3. Focus on YOUR GOALS.
If your Goal is 5 years away….no need for you to tinker with your equity investments. If your goal is less than 2 years….strongly stay in Debt/arbitrage. Don’t become adventurous and invest in Equity to make some quick money.


Yes…we do encourage you to look at investing some part of surplus money you have as LUMP-SUM and at the same time, we strongly recommend that you take an Expert’s advise.

Is this the bottom ? 
It may not be so but it definitely is close to bottom is the majority of Experts feeling.

Once the vaccine is found for CORONA, (which is inevitable), sooner or later, the markets should start its Upward journey and it could be well like a Hockey stick graph upward.

Many MNCs are already thinking and moving towards closing their facilities in China and setting them up in India. A huge positive for India.

The stimulus package announced by Govt across the World and in India too has shown that the Governments are ready to help businesses stand up quickly on their feet and start running. Very good sign.

Don’t forget..
ALL BEAR MARKETS HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON…….THEY END” !!

We urge you to stay safe.
Spend time with family.
Meditate.
Read books (my recommendation would be DON’T RETIRE RICH !!)

BTW,
My SIPs are continuing and I did do so Lumpsum investments too.

Regards,
Srikanth Matrubai



Srikanth Matrubai Author of the Amazon Best Seller DON'T RETIRE RICH
Do read the book and give your valuable feedback and request you to post positive comments on the Amazon. https://amzn.to/3cHUM6M/ You can purchase the book on amazon and flipkart Please subscribe to my TELEGRAM channel https://t.me/MutualFundWORLD/

Saturday, March 21, 2020

CORONA SE DARO NA! - PART 2 - Brutal and ferocious

Greetings,

If I had asked you, dear investors, about a month back 
What would you feel if you could buy Indian bluechips like HDFC BANK, ITC, RELIANCE, TCS at 25 % less” ?
You would have jumped up from the seat and would have exclaimed “Oh…I would love that”.


Good Monsoon, Corporate Rate Cut, Good Liquidity, Interest Rate cut, IIP improving all these positive things were just about converging to give Good returns to Equity investors when COVID-19 (Corona Virus) hit like a Tsunami.

Tsunami is too mild a word as this pandemic has left in its trail brutally devastating affecting more countries than World War II.  And its not even over yet !!!

Unprecedented fear and panic gripped investors is evident in the ferocious fall in the Sensex/Nifty.  Not just bad companies, good companies and even great companies were pretty much thrown away by Panic stricken investors.

Even Gold was not spared.
Pretty much every asset class demolished.
Millennial investors who had never seen a True Bear Market and were displaying false bravado on every fall got a real scare and a lesson which I learnt way back in 1992 itself.
Last month’s dream of 25% fall is now a reality and has actually turned into a nightmare as the fall has been much more than 25%. The fall has been lethal, lightning quick, ferocious and across the board where even the Bluest of Blue chips hasn’t been spared.

Many experts fear that this could lead to World Wide Recession !

CORONA is bigger than 9/11, bigger than 1918 flu pandemic, bigger than the Great Depression of US.

It’s pretty obvious that many economies across the Globe is affected including India but is the damage permanent?

Beyond Repair?

Absolutely Not !!!
Yes...it will take time but Humans have seen these kind of disasters before (1918 flu) and come out stronger.

CANNOT ANTICIPATE FOR UNKNOWN
In 1942, in a German unit, there were 104 Tanks. Most sophisticated and technologically advanced. But, shockingly, right at the time when it was most needed in a Battle, only 20 were operable.
Engineers quickly found the issue.
During weeks of inactivity, Field Mice has nested inside the vehicles and eaten away insulation covering the electrical systems.
Germans had the best equipment but were defeated by...err...mice.
No engineer had anticipated this !
How could they ?


EXPERIENCE SAYS :
One thing that I have observed in my 29 years of Stock Market Experience that whenever equities fall rapidly especially due to a panic or an exaggerated event, the bounce back has been equally lightning quick.
Being in the 2nd stage of the Virus, in about a month’s time, we should be CORONA VIRUS FREE (just like China is today) and then the bounce could happen. Whether it will happen immediately, before that or after that is a mere guess but IT WILL HAPPEN for sure.

If you have observed GOLD too has fallen by 15% but when I meet investors and ask about their view on Gold, they are actually happy Gold has fallen and intend to buy more.
Why give step-motherly treatment to Equities ?
In fact, history has proved time and again that Equities beat Gold by a fair distance in all time frames across geographies.
The accompanying graphs shows how the Markets have always bounced back and that too with renewed vigor.
 

So apt to remember Baron Rothschild famous advise "The time to buy is when the blood is running in the streets".
The full statement was ...
THE TIME TO BUY IS WHEN THE BLOOD IS RUNNING IN THE STREETS.....EVEN IF IT IS THE BLOOD IS YOUR OWN"!!!





WHY ARE PROMOTERS INCREASING STAKE ? !!
The Promoters of Indian companies seem to know something which we don’t know or choosing to ignore.
Several of them are INCREASING their stakes in their companies in this battered time.
More than 200 company promoters are making full use of the Big fall and buying their own company shares at rock bottom prices.
TATAs bought Rs.569 crores worth of Tata Chemicals
Rs.457 crores of Tata Steel
Rs.178 crores of Indian Hotels
Suzuki has acquired Rs.135 crores of Maruti Suzuki
Bajaj family brought Rs.91 crores of Bajaj Auto
Rs.50 crores of Bajaj Holding
Rs.36 crores of Bajaj Finserve

All these purchases by these promoters only goes to prove how much confidence they have in their company’s growth. Are they foreseeing what we cannot foresee?





WHAT ABOUT THE GOOD NEWS?
1. Good Monsoon
2. Corporate Rate Cut
3. Good Liquidity
4. Interest Rate Cut
5. Improving IIP
It seems that investors and experts alike have suddenly forgotten all the good news.
But once the tide turns…. the experts themselves will be talking about these positive points and by that time, the markets may have already zoomed.

Media in general hardly reports good news.
Many victims are fully recovered and it clearly shows it is not a deadly disease.
If someone is in quarantine, in a couple of weeks time, chance of cure is very high, but this news was not spread!!!
CARONA IS CURABLE.



What is the way forward for you :
Someday soon all negatives will vanish, some businesses may get disrupted, some businesses will emerge, some fund managers will identify them too along with the existing good businesses. We need to stay put, don't jump out of the roller coaster during the run. Every time these downslides are not the same, some will be steeper some will be less steep. The more the steep fall the quicker the recovery will be.

1. Be Calm.

I know its difficult when you see your portfolio getting eroded day by day (in fact, hour by hour) but that’s the best thing to do now. Don’t be tempted to take action just for the heck of it.

2. DONT USE LIQUID MONEY FOR EQUITIES : 
Do NOT touch your Emergency Fund for investing into Equities just because they are so attractively valued. Its time to be intelligent not adventurous. 

3. DO NOT SELL 
If you are in Cash Crunch, DO NOT SELL your stocks.  
Do not convert your Paper Loss into Real Loss.
If the stocks/funds continue to sit there, there is definite potential of capturing all future growths.

4. STAGGER YOUR PURCHASES : 
If you do have spare cash/spare money to invest…do not go FULL HOG right now….Invest about 25% and stagger your investment.

5. DO NOT STOP YOUR SIP.
Don’t make the absolute silly mistake of stopping your sip.

6. TAKE A LOAN IF REQUIRED : 
If you have are in Cash Crunch, you can consider taking a Loan on your Stock/Mutual fund portfolio.
Yes…there are dime a dozen firms that are ready to offer loans at about 50% of your equity valuation.
And the rates too are quite decent.



7. SHOW PATIENCE :
Never go for Spectacular. Be Happy with the Slow and Steady Approach. Believe in being ABOVE AVERAGE In both UP and DOWN markets. That should be enough.

You've heard the old adage, it's not timing the market, it's time in the market. And at times like these, it's really important to remember that.

 
BACK TO BASICS :
One good thing that these BIG DECLINES do is…it makes us go back to BASICS.
We should never forget the basics.
In the pursuit of new knowledge…. basics tend to get ignored.
The BEST way to prevent the spread of the Corona Virus is a simple thing of WASH YOUR HANDS.
And it’s a Basic hygienic thing to do.
But humans do not like to do simple things. They are awed by Complex ones.
And at the same time, they forget the basics.
To get back on track, just follow simple basics.
Wash your hands to kick out Corona Virus
Do Asset Allocation to increase your overall Returns
 BTW, when its equities, be prepared for the Long Haul !

Regards,
Srikanth Matrubai




Srikanth Matrubai Author of the Amazon Best Seller DON'T RETIRE RICH
Do read the book and give your valuable feedback and request you to post positive comments on the Amazon. https://amzn.to/3cHUM6M/

You can purchase the book on amazon and flipkart

 Please subscribe to my TELEGRAM channel https://t.me/MutualFundWORLD/

Saturday, March 14, 2020

CORONA SE DARO NA ! Part 1 - Kick out the Carona Fear

There are 12 months, 12 Zodiac Signs, 12 gods of Olympus, etc and thus 12 is considered as COMPLETE NUMBER and Number 13 is considered as Unlucky as it comes immediately after 12.

And on Friday the 13th March 2020, the Black Swan event which we keep fearing has made its entry in the form of CORONA VIRUS sending the World Markets into a tailspin with almost unprecedented fear and causing extreme panic.

Image shows the first page of the comic.

The Indian Stock Markets have fallen by more than 20% and was still volatile.

I used the word ALMOST unprecedented, meaning there were precedence earlier too.
The most prominent one I recall is the 2008 Fall.
In that fall, Indices fell by more than 61% and even big institutions toppled over and I would say was much more brutally devastating.

But, those who held on to their investments had a great fruitful returns.
The quality portfolios giving bigger returns.
People remember the 61% fall, but very few remember the immediate next years returns of 157% positive !!!
In fact, History shows that each BIG FALL year is followed by a BIGGER Gain year !


Today, March 13th 2020, the Stock Markets touched lower circuit on the opening bell and was closed for 45 minutes.
Historically, whenever the markets have touched the Lower Circuits, the returns have been from 15% to 25% within a year.
So, the chances of you getting better return from hereon is much more.


CARONA SE DARO....NA !

History is replete with attacks of virus on Humans. And history also tells us that Humans tend to very quickly develop immunity against that virus.
The scientists too are working overtime to tackle the virus.
The solution seems to nearer than ever before.
I think the Coronovirus is over hyped....
I am not at all denying its threat but I am pretty sure the fear is over hyped.


Such massive falls have always been swift and sharp catching even experienced investors off guard.
At the same time, the bounce back have always been equally quick.


POSITIVES IGNORED : 

There are many positives which has been brushed under the carpet.
1. The fall in Crude and other commodity prices is a huge plus for India helping us control inflation and interest rates.
2. The Forex Reserves are at all time High.
3. The Markets are now at very attractive valuations, especially compared to the last 15-24 months.
4. Nifty Earnings Yield more often than not trades at a good discount to Bond Yield.
Whenever Nifty earnings Yield has exceeded the Bond Yield (its nows exceeding by 45bps), the returns have tended to be huge.
5. Good Monsoon
6. Trailing PE of Nifty is now 23.7
and Market Capt to GDP is ony 68%
7. And one more positive thing which many have completely forgotten is the Reduction in Corporate Tax Rates
This rate cut will improve the profit margin of Indian companies resulting in higher EPS and consequently higher stock prices. 


THE HISTORY OF BIG FALLS & THE BIGGER BOUNCE BACKS : 

Year 1992 - Sensex down by 54% in a year and up by 127% in next 1.5 yrs.

Year 1996 - 40% down in 4 years and 115% in next year

Year 2000 - 56% down in my 1.5 years and 138% up next 2.5 years.

Year 2008 - 61% down in 1 year and 157% up in next 1.5 years

Year 2010 - 28% down in 1 year and 96% up in next 3 years

Year 2015 - 22.3% down in 1 Year and 25% up in next 7 months



EVERYONE TAKES ABOUT THE 2008 FALL
Many keep asking me....."is this the repeat of 2008 Fall"??

THE SENSEX FELL FROM 20873 ON 8TH JANUARY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 8160 ON 9TH MARCH 2009
..
..
BUT, IT ROARED BACK TO 21,000 BY 5TH NOVEMBER 2010.
It was down by almost 61% but ROARED BY BAY 157%
The Bounce Back is always sharper and BIGGER each time!!!




By the way, Mukesh Ambani has last nearly 2.80 lakh crores in the last 3 weeks...
yes, you read it right about 28,00,00,00,00,000 but he is not selling off any of his shares/company assets in panic and THAT'S THE REASON HE IS THE RICHEST (oh sorry, now the 2nd Richest) IN ASIA.
He is absolutely unnerved, calm and going about his business in his usual manner. 
Why and how ?
Simple....he is not worried about the day to day variation/volatility but clearly focussed on the LONG TERM WEALTH CREATION. 
He is a true follower of  #DON'T RETIRE RICH  philosophy

Lets take a cue from him and understand that the portfolio valuation may be showing LESS today but it certainly DOES NOT MEAN WEALTH IS ERODED FOREVER. 



“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” – Warren Buffet





TREAT EQUITY LIKE YOU TREAT LAND AND GOLD

The biggest issue with Indian Investors that when
  1. GOLD prices fall, their first reaction is....GOOD.....Now I can buy more

  2. When Land Prices fall, their reaction is ….CHALEGA....I AM HOLDING FOR LONG TERM
But when the same investors's mutual fund or equities fall, their reaction is....
IS THE END OF STOCK MARKETS....
Has my money gone??
Let me Take out whatever is left!!

When anyone is looking at selling off Real Estate and the land rates have fallen by 30%, their ONLY reaction is.....”WHY SHOULD I SELL NOW?? ITS DOWN BY 30%....i WILL WAIT
but, the same investor, will not even blink when it comes to selling Equities even at a loss!!

DO NOT ALLOW YOUR NOTIONAL LOSS TO TURN INTO PERMANENT LOSS!!



History has proven to us that Gold and Real Estate take many many years to recover from a Bearish run and History has also proven to us that Equities take very little time to not only recover but also deliver superior returns than these 2 asset classes.



FINALLY, 

If your Direction is Right.....you just need to keep on Walking.
There will be stones on the way....you will have to negotiate them and move on.
Dont turn away looking at the number of stones. 


So, when the Direction is right....in this case...our Direction is Wealth Creation and our vehicle also right...that is the EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS...then there is absolutely no need to keep looking at the NAV on a daily or even a Weekly basis.



Sometimes it makes great sense to be like an Ostrich and ignore the noise all around.




Do not ignore EQUITIES.
Equity still remains the BEST ASSET CLASS to Create True Wealth. 
Yes...its full of fluctuation, volatile and tests your patience but its return generating capacity has never been doubt.


Hence, you are strongly recommended to contact a Good Proved Advisor and retire with Freedom...Financial Freedom.
Never, fall into the trap of Direct.
Dont become PAISA WISE RUPEE FOOLISH.!!!!!!

Better to pay 1% than to lose sleep over the entire 100% and even be at a situation where you lose the principal itself.







We also urge you to read






Regards,
Srikanth Matrubai
Author of the Amazon Best Seller DON'T RETIRE RICH


Do read the book and give your valuable feedback and request you to post positive comments on the Amazon.

https://amzn.to/3cHUM6M/

You can purchase the book on amazon and flipkart





Please subscribe to my TELEGRAM channel
https://t.me/MutualFundWORLD/

Sunday, March 8, 2020

WOMEN : HERE'S HOW TO BE FINANCIALLY INDEPEDENT



The women of 21st century are equal to men in every aspect and therefore should plan their financial portfolio to have a independent and stable life. Gone are the days, when only asset, where women used to invest was gold.


My Women's Day article published in PROFIT PLUS, Kannada Magazine

Every women should invest in diversified options for her financial fitness and independence. There are various options for women to invest her money like equities, liquid funds, gold bonds, insurance covers, real estate, if possible

1. Buy Less Gold Jewellery and rather look at alternate Gold Options. 
If you are buying Gold Jewellery returns, then the bad news for you is that  gold jewellery does not provide recurring returns or interest income, infact it is never sold at a prevailing gold rate, due to additional making charges.
If you like  investing in gold, you should go for Sovereign Gold Bonds, Gold ETFs and E-gold as they provide regular interest income, safety and have no making charges unlike jewellery.

BEST way to invest in Gold is via the Sovereign Gold Bonds. 
SGB is a tax-free, risk-free method of buying and accumulating Gold.
In fact, besides the appreciation (whatever) from Gold, you get an additional incentive of 2.5% interest on the Initial Invested Amount.


2. Restrict your urge to shop 
Women are oftenn tagged as shopaholics.
Going overboard with your shopping spree with readily available plastic money or EMI options can diverge you from being a prudent spender to an extravagant spender. It does not mean that you kill your passion for shopping, but it is essential to draw a line between need and greed for shopping. Of course, one should indulge in the things which give you happiness (shopping could be one of those). But, it is also essential to manage your finances ideally and try to channelize them in a productive saving vehicle



3. Don’t rely solely on your partner for financial actions
 Women cook healthy meals, look after the well-being of our family, but they miss out on being financially healthy. This is where a woman has to take charge and be more involved in money matters.

All in all, it is not just essential but imperative for a woman to be as ‘aware’ about the essence of financial investments and hence making the right financial decisions!

When finances are concerned, they aren’t as confident and knowledgeable about financial matters as men. This problem persists even as women handle many of their families’ routine money management duties, like paying bills and making many purchasing decisions.Thus, it is important to be financially literate and take an active part in your own and your family’s financial decisions.
You and your spouse make a TEAM and thus your participation is vital and inevitable.


4. Diversify your portfolio:

Diversification of investment portfolio is always recommended by experts. It helps in risk division and get effective returns. This women's day invest in various options like equities, mutual funds, gold bonds, Fixed deposits, PPF savings, insurance plans etc.

A women does not like saving too much, she loves having cash and buying things herself. But for being an independent and financially rich, she should invest in various options like equity, fixed deposits, PPF, insurance covers, real estate etc


Financial control is the biggest tool in your hand. Use it, and use it well.

5. Instill Financial Displine in your Children too :
Since women tend to more closely connected with kids, its much easier for them to instill the seeds of financial discipline in their children.
Make them aware of the steps involved in operating bank accounts, the pitfalls of wrong investing, etc.
Teach them the importance of Financial Goals and the advantages of starting early.



FINALLY,
Women need to remember that its a matter of fact, that Women tend to LIVE LONGER than men and at some point of time, they HAVE to mange finances on their own.
So, the earlier they learn to handle the better.



All the best
Srikanth Matrubai
Author of DON'T RETIRE RICH 
Certified Volatility Coach





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