Tuesday, April 21, 2015


Don’t be......I am in my senses!!
Full Page Ads exhorting you to Buy Gold,
Huge beeline of people outside Gold Showrooms,
and here I am telling not only not to buy Gold but to SELL!
Let me make it easy for you to decide why you should be SELLING Gold this Akshaya Tritiya


But, before that, please keep in mind, that to sell Gold you should have:

1. Bought Gold purely for investment purposes
2. Your Gold exposure vis a vis your Asset Allocation is in double digits
3. You had bought Gold for Speculative purposes
4. You had bought Gold to PROTECT your capital

Those who followed my advise last year have saved 11% on their Capital.
Yes, Gold has fallen 11% since last year’s Akshaya Tritaya.
And, it is widely expected that going forward, due to US Fed inevitable hiking rates, Lower Inflation would take the shine off the Gold and thus Gold is expected to stay soft if not weaken further.
Let us see why you should be selling rather than buying Gold on today's Akshaya Tritiya at this juncture...
  1. Inevitable hike in interest rates by US Fed could lead to less interest in gold
  2. Bounce back in economies of Europe could lead to money shifting away from Gold
  3. Lower expected Inflation rates in India could reduce Gold demand
  4. Lower demand by the Other BIG importer, i.e, CHINA could impact Gold prices negatively
  5. Mandatory declaration of PAN NUMBER for purchases of Gold above Rs.1 lakh could make people hesitant to buy Gold in bigger quantities affecting volumes and hence prices.
  6. Possible removal or reduction of Gold import duty (presently 10%) could reduce Gold Prices going forward
  7. There is an Adhik ASHADA masa this year, meaning an extra month of ASHADA wherein NO weddings are conducted. 2 months of low or NIL demand from one of the BIGGEST markets for Gold
  8. Continuing weakness in Crude Oil could also negatively impact Gold Prices

As expected, the World Gold Council is bullish. It has predicting good demand and a bounce back in prices. WGC has to be bullish. It is its job.

Yes, as a part of Asset Allocation, Gold has to be in one’s portfolio and if your Asset Allocation says you to have to ADD Gold to your portfolio, go ahead buy Gold, but NOT now, not today at least.
Add Gold through Gold ETFs or Gold Funds preferably in SIP format and not through Gold Jewellery.
Either way, our scriptures say “The only auspicious day to buy gold ornaments stated to be of Guru-Pushya day ie when Pushya nakshatra falls on any Thursday in any month. And certainly not on Akshaya Tritiya day”

Please remember; never treat Gold as an Investment. It has to a part of your Asset Allocation and it certainly deserves a place.

So, today on Akashaya Tritiya Day, if not sell, at least do not BUY Gold. 

Also visit http:/http://goodinsuranceadvisor.blogspot.in/

Image courtesy : Jagran

1 comment:

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